Murphy vs Higgins: World Championship Semi-Final Tips & Best Bets

The Pick: Back Murphy Each-Way at the Crucible

Shaun Murphy is our each-way recommendation for the World Championship semi-final against John Higgins, with both men having earned their place in the last four through gritty, character-driven performances. At current prices — Murphy available at around 11/4 with most firms to reach the final — there's genuine value here for a player who looks to be hitting top gear at exactly the right moment.

The Analysis: Murphy's Form Curve Is Heading in One Direction

Let's not dress this up. Murphy was far from convincing in round one, scraping past Fan Zhengyi 10-9 in what looked like the kind of opener that gets you knocked out in the next round. Fast-forward to the quarter-final, however, and we're seeing a completely different animal. His 13-10 defeat of defending champion Zhao Xintong was a disciplined, clinical display — the sort that wins tournaments, not just matches.

The key moment came at the start of that decisive third session. Locked at 8-8 overnight, Murphy won four of the first five frames to surge into a 12-9 lead, and despite Zhao clawing one back to make it 12-10, the 2005 world champion closed it out with a composed break of 69. That ability to front up when the pressure is highest is exactly what you need at the Crucible, and at 43 years of age, Murphy clearly has no intention of fading quietly into the background. "I've been churning out performances like this week in week out," he said afterwards, and on this evidence, it's hard to argue with that self-assessment.

It's also worth noting that Murphy has despatched the defending champion — Zhao becoming the 21st victim of the so-called Crucible curse, joining the long list of first-time winners who have failed to defend their title the following year. That's not a lucky bounce — that's a quality scalp, and Murphy was right to call it one of the best wins of his career.

Know Your Opponent: Higgins Is Never, Ever Done

Of course, Murphy now faces arguably the toughest possible draw in John Higgins, and that demands an honest assessment of the risk here. The four-time world champion — who has now reached a remarkable 12th Crucible semi-final — came from 9-7 down against Neil Robertson in the final session of their quarter-final, winning three frames in a row before grinding out a break of 52 to seal a 13-10 victory. This is a man who already eliminated Ronnie O'Sullivan in the last 16. He is playing with the quiet authority of someone who knows exactly how to win at this venue.

Higgins is the shorter price for good reason. He has more titles, more semi-final experience, and a reputation for elevating his game under the unique pressures of the Crucible fortnight. If you're looking for a straight-win bet, Higgins is defensible at around 4/7 with the major bookmakers — Bet365, William Hill, and Paddy Power are all competitive in this market right now. But value? That's firmly in Murphy's corner.

The Odds

Odds correct at time of writing. Always check current prices before placing a bet.

The Other Semi-Final: Allen vs Wu Yize

Don't sleep on the other side of the draw, either. Mark Allen has booked his place in the semi-finals for the second time in four years, and he'll face China's Wu Yize — a matchup that carries its own fascinating storylines and betting angles. We'll have a full preview of that one separately, but note that the Allen-Wu market is already open across the major platforms.

The Verdict

Murphy each-way at 11/4 is our recommended play. He's a former world champion playing with the conviction of a man who genuinely believes this is his tournament. Higgins remains the favourite for very good reasons, and this will be an attritional, grinding contest in the best Crucible tradition — but at those odds, Murphy represents the standout value in an otherwise competitive market. Back him each-way and let it breathe.

Please gamble responsibly. Visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. You must be 18 or over to bet.